Last-Second Oscars Predictions

[Rob Jensen]

Okay, I'm typing this as fast as I can during the half-hour pre-show.

Notes:

I still haven't seen most of the movies nominated for Oscars. Up and
Coralineare in my to-watch stack. I've seen District 9 and several of
the summer tentpoles, but very few of the Oscar bait movies -- not
even the mainstreamy-er stuff like Up In The Air, like I normally do.
However, that's not going to stop me from predicting the Oscars
because predicting the Oscars is NOT about what *I* like, but what the
*Academy* likes. When my likes and the Academy's likes coincide,
that's awesome.

So my predictions are broken down by category. I'll list my
predictions and potential dark horse upsets. And in at least one
case, a coin flip.

The usual biases apply. As in the Academy is . . .

-- older than typical viewers
-- gayer than typical viewers (ie: slightly more stereotypically gay
in taste)
-- a lot more left-wing than right-wingers want and slightly less
left-wing than left-wingers want
-- apt to go for a precedent (such as giving Halle Berry an undeserved
Oscar because they were giving one to Denzel and an honorary one to
Poitier anyway back in 2001.)
-- apt to surprise the audience with one of the acting categories,
often, but not always, Supporting Actress. When Supporting Actress is
a lock (as Mo'nique has this year), it's often, but not always, the
Supporting Actor category.

The Academy also
-- tends to give Best Picture to a movie that has been at *least*
nominated for Best Editing. Winning Best Editing is also an indicator
for winning Best Picture if a movie starts winning a lot of tech
awards.
-- tends to give Best Cinematography to something *other* than the
Best Picture winner (recent trend).
-- likes smaller, arty films
-- likes sweeping epics
-- will go for more emotional/weepy of previous two items

Don't worry about:
-- Juried categories like Foreign Language Film, the Live and Animated
Short Films and Documentaries. Nobody gets the Shorts or Docs right
unless they're fans of shorts and Foreign Language is only predictable
when a nominee is a mainstream hit or sleeper hit.

So:

Best Picture:
The Hurt Locker
dark horse: Avatar
** Most voting took place before the recent controversies surrounding
the producer's campaign and the opportunistic lawsuit by a soldier the
writer of the original magazine piece was embedded with.
** Still, if Avatar has deep support among techies, that could
overcome Hurt Locker's support among the art crowd.

Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
** She won the DGA award, which is the most reliable indicator of the
Oscar winner. Also, after his speech for Titanic, the fogeys aren't
going to give Cameron another Oscar for Director until he does a small
art film.

Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
** No one else has any buzz

Best Actress:
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
COIN FLIP: Meryl Streep, J&J
** Too close to call, but Blind Side was slightly more
popular/populist a movie and weepier, too.

Best Supporting Actor:
Kristoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
dark horse: Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
** If they're going to do an upset or even give a Gold Watch this
year, it could be to Plummer, especially since Mo'Nique will take the
Supporting Actress category.

Best Supporting Actress:
Mo'Nique, Precious

Original Screenplay:
Up
dark horse: The Hurt Locker

Adapted Screenplay
Up in the Air
would like to see: District 9

Cinematography:
Avatar
dark horse: The Hurt Locker
** due to Avatar's tech accomplishments

Sound Mixing:
Sound Editing:
Visual Effects:
** All three to AVATAR

FIlm Editing:
The Hurt Locker

Makeup:
Star Trek

Original Song:
The Weary Kid (Crazy Heart)

Original Score:
Up
dark horse: The Hurt Locker

Art Direction:
Doctor Parnassus
dark horse: Avatar

Costume Design:
Doctor Parnassus
dark horse: Nine

Animated Feature:
Up (duh!)

JUST IN TIME!

-- Rob

[Aruba Badding Sr.]

The Academy also tends to give Best Picture to a movie that has been
at *least* nominated for Best Editing. Winning Best Editing is also
an indicator for winning Best Picture if a movie starts winning a lot
of tech awards.

For values of "a movie" from {Avatar}.